Monsoon to hit Kerala in next 48 hours: IMD

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The much-awaited southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala in the next 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

IMD had earlier predicted the monsoon's onset over the state on May 30, with an error margin of four days.

"The conditions are favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala within the next 48 hours. It will be declared on the basis of the data recorded at 14 weather stations, the amount of rains received, wind pattern and cloud formation," K Santosh, director of IMD here, said.

A section of climatologists, however, felt the monsoon could be further delayed due to the El Nino effect. They predicted that the state would receive the first shower of the season on June 8.

In its latest forecast, IMD indicated that there was 33% probability of deficient rains during the monsoon season from June to September.

It also indicated 90% probability of El Nino conditions to continue during the southwest monsoon season.

"The country is likely to receive deficient rainfall this monsoon. Over the southern peninsula, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 92% of Long Period Average (LPA). It means that if 100 mm rain is expected in Kerala, it will be 92 mm," the IMD official said.

Climatologists at the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) said the monsoon would be delayed.

"Going by the IMD data on El Nino, the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala only by June 8, though conditions are favourable for the onset within 48 hours," a scientists said. "IMD had last year indicated 93% of LPA over south peninsula, but Kerala received excess rains."

To substantiate his prediction of a delayed monsoon, he said the clouds, now over Central Sri Lanka, would move towards the north of that country by Thursday, before reaching Kerala on Monday.



Meanwhile, the State Emergency Operations Centre (SEOC) of KSDMA led by the state relief commissioner directed all district authorities to be prepared to face possible monsoon-related calamities.

"Since there is a higher than normal probability of deficient rainfall, attempts should be made to save as much water as possible particularly in the dams until safety thresholds are achieved," SEOC head scientist Sekhar Kuriakose said.

"Considering the heavy summer rainfall (between March and May) and due to the effects of Nepal earthquakes there is a probability of landslides in the hilly districts during the early half of the southwest monsoon," he warned.